sexta-feira, 9 de março de 2012

Greek's CDS: my piggy bank is getting fat!

No 'Wall Street Journal' vinha a notícia. A Grécia conseguiu que 83% da dívida a privados fosse perdoada (restruturada) voluntariamente. Há umas semanas atrás, foi passada na Grécia uma lei de 'acção colectiva' que enforça uma eventual restruturação da dívida grega a privados 'que não concordem voluntariamente'. Claro que isto tem efeitos retroactivos, senão pouco efeito tinha.

Depois de se saber hoje quem respondia ao chamado voluntário, a Grécia esta a pensar activar a accão colectiva para conseguir mais divida restruturada. Se o fizer (e só nesse caso), é então possível colectar as CDS que apostavam no default da Grécia.

Agora fica a pergunta: Os privados que não aceitaram voluntariamente a restruturação, teriam muito a ganhar posteriormente em CDS?

NEW YORK—Payouts on a net $3.2 billion of insurance-like contracts designed to protect against losses on Greek sovereign debt have been triggered, after the country forced certain private creditors into its debt restructuring who did not want to accept the terms of the deal, a committee of dealers and investors decided Friday.

The request made early Friday to the special committee of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, which rules on such matters for the credit-default swaps market, was made following Greece's use of so-called collective-action clauses in its domestic-law bonds.

Collective-action clauses were inserted into the bonds' documentation retroactively, after Greece passed a law last month allowing it to strong-arm all private investors into its restructuring—even investors who said they weren't willing to participate.

That action made the deal, which was billed as voluntary because of the many participants who did sign up, not truly voluntary for all. If a debt restructuring is agreed between "a governmental authority and a sufficient number of holders of such obligation to bind all holders," making it mandatory, CDS can be triggered, according to ISDA's credit derivatives definitions.

The 15-strong Determinations Committee for Europe, convened by ISDA, voted unanimously that a restructuring credit event had occurred, triggering compensation owed to holders of CDS protection on Greek debt. One auction will be held to settle relevant CDS contracts on Greece on March 19.

The association had already indicated in January that if collective-action clauses were used by Greece to effect a reduction in coupon or principal, it could trigger Greek CDS.

CDS, which function like insurance for both corporate and sovereign bonds, can be triggered by a restructuring, a failure to make timely interest or principal payments or a bankruptcy, among other things.

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